2026 El Niño Predicted to Be the Strongest on Record
A new analysis by Berkeley Earth suggests the 2026 El Niño could be the most intense since recordkeeping began, posing severe climate and economic risks globally.
Climate scientist Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth has released a worrying forecast for the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. Based on 14 climate models and 667 simulations, the analysis predicts that water temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region could peak at 3.6 degrees Celsius above normal. That would exceed the previous record set during the 2015–2016 El Niño by about 0.8 degrees Celsius.
For context, the gap between the strongest and fifth-strongest El Niño over the past 150 years is only 0.5°C. Hausfather notes that models are forecasting something outside the envelope of any observed event. This year's El Niño is intensifying more rapidly than the 1997–1998 super El Niño, and it began after a La Niña phase, making the rapid development particularly striking.
The tropical Pacific warming will rearrange global weather patterns. Global temperatures in 2027 could reach 1.7°C above preindustrial levels, exceeding the 1.5°C threshold considered relatively safe. Separately, Carbon Brief analysis shows the odds of 2026 becoming the hottest year on record have risen from 19% in April to 35% in July.
Economic impacts are also a concern. The 1997–1998 El Niño caused $5.7 trillion in lost global economic growth. If current projections hold, the unfolding event could result in cumulative losses of about $10 trillion by 2032. Some effects are already visible: Peru banned anchovy fishing in the eastern Pacific this spring.
A challenge is the lack of historic analogues for such a strong El Niño. Models are fed historical data, so accuracy remains uncertain. However, Hausfather points out that models are converging around the 3.6°C average, giving forecasters confidence that serious consequences are ahead.
