Putin Faces 'Existential Choice': Scale Back or Launch New Mobilization

The Kremlin and dictator Putin are facing an "existential choice" – either to scale down their military ambitions or to dramatically increase demands on society and the economy. The second option could include a new wave of mobilization, closure of state borders, restrictions on employment freedom involving forced labor in the military industry, and a transition to a fully militarized economy with state ownership and price controls.

However, announcing a new mobilization carries significant political risks. The previous mobilization in 2022 led to a drop in Putin's approval ratings, reduced public support for the aggression against Ukraine, and caused hundreds of thousands of people subject to mobilization to flee Russia. These factors suggest that any similar step could once again undermine the regime's stability.