Rinkēvičs: regional situation "very tense," further escalation likely

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs published an extensive statement on Facebook warning that the situation in the world, Europe and the Baltic region has become very tense. He said Russia's war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East continue to drive political and military escalation, now compounded by rising energy prices and a worsening economic outlook — meaning the coming autumn and winter will be difficult for both Latvia and Europe.

Rising sabotage risks

The president noted a growing number of Russia-inspired sabotage, espionage and subversion incidents targeting countries that support Ukraine, pointing to the drone incident in Leipzig and the shooting at a train near the Ukraine-Poland border as examples, and adding that similar activity has been observed in Latvia as well. He said further escalation is highly likely, since some form of mobilization and further operations against Ukraine are expected in Russia after its State Duma elections, as Moscow aims to secure gains this winter, intimidate Ukraine's supporters, and weaken unity within NATO and the EU.

Rinkēvičs said Latvian and allied security services are in constant contact and information exchange, and several spies and saboteurs have already been detected and neutralized, though no guarantee against hostile action can ever be absolute. He also argued that labeling sabotage and terror acts merely as "hybrid threats" downplays their real danger.

Risks tied to the elections

According to the president, the greatest risks to Latvia in the coming weeks are linked to the upcoming elections, including possible cyberattacks, migration pressure at the Belarusian border, drone incidents and information campaigns. Latvia has therefore requested an increased NATO fighter patrol presence, extended Operation Vilkatis, and stepped-up activity from interior and security agencies. A scenario involving a small-scale incursion by Russian special forces into allied territory is also taken seriously, with Latvia's armed forces and NATO units stationed in the country said to be ready to respond firmly without delay.

Rinkēvičs concluded by urging residents to vote in the upcoming elections, support the National Armed Forces and the National Guard (Zemessardze), report suspicious activity to authorities, and look for ways to strengthen the country.