Shapovalov vs. Griekspoor: third meeting at ATP Chengdu as predictions diverge

The match and its context

The ATP Chengdu Open (a 250-level event) is being played on outdoor hard courts at the Sichuan International Tennis Centre in China. One of the headline first-round matchups pits Canada's Denis Shapovalov, the tournament's No. 7 seed, against the Netherlands' Tallon Griekspoor. According to Stats Insider, the match is scheduled for Thursday, September 24, and falls in the round of 32. Notably, The Grandstand refers to this same match as a first-round encounter at the "Hangzhou Open," while other sources place it in Chengdu — likely a discrepancy in one of the reports.

Previous encounters

This will be the pair's third meeting, with their head-to-head currently tied 1-1. Their first clash came in Geneva in 2024 on clay, where Griekspoor prevailed in a three-set thriller, 6-7(7), 7-6(4), 6-3. Their second meeting, this year in Munich, also on clay, went to Shapovalov, 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. Both players ended their summer hard-court swing with losses to U.S. Open finalist Ben Shelton — Griekspoor fell in the first round, while Shapovalov reached the third round. Griekspoor then represented the Netherlands in Davis Cup play against Colombia, winning both his singles and doubles rubbers.

Predictions split

Experts are not unanimous on a favorite. Last Word on Sports predicts a three-set win for Griekspoor, while The Grandstand gives a slight edge to Shapovalov, also forecasting a three-set victory, citing his fresher schedule and past success on the Asian swing — he was a runner-up in Seoul and a semifinalist in Tokyo, both in 2022. Meanwhile, Stats Insider, which ran 10,000 simulations of the match, gives Shapovalov a 56% chance of winning. However, factoring in the betting odds (Griekspoor at $2.20, Shapovalov at $1.66), the outlet recommends backing Griekspoor as the better-value bet. For the first set specifically, both the model and the betting tip favor Shapovalov, with a 52% probability.