Šarts: Russia currently lacks military capacity to open second front against NATO

Jānis Šarts, director of NATO's Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, said in the LETA podcast "Kas tas vispār bija?!" that Russia does not currently have the military capacity to launch an attack against a NATO member state, since its resources remain tied up by the ongoing war in Ukraine. He added that there are currently no signs Russia is preparing for such a step.

Šarts noted that Russia remains a long-term threat to the region, but that this does not translate into an immediate crisis. Any military attack requires real capability to carry it out, he explained, and Russia simply does not have that capability at present. NATO, for its part, has prepared its own defence plans for such scenarios.

Hybrid threats remain a concern

The expert stressed that this does not mean the Baltic states face no danger at all — hybrid attacks remain a persistent possibility. However, he noted that this risk is not unique to the Baltics, as other European countries such as Germany and France face similar threats.

Situation could shift

Šarts warned that the picture could change if the war in Ukraine were to stop, since Russia would then be able to focus on rebuilding its armed forces. He said Russia would likely continue to arm itself, though experts differ on how quickly it could prepare for a broader conflict. For that reason, he said, it is important to distinguish between an immediate military threat and a risk that might grow only over several years, since these two scenarios call for different defence-resource decisions.

Šarts also criticized emotional statements about a supposedly imminent Russian attack on the Baltic states, arguing that such rhetoric makes it harder to hold a serious discussion about what Latvia actually needs to prepare for. He emphasized that defence decisions should be based on facts and data rather than sustained public anxiety.