With ~90% of votes counted, "Apvienotais saraksts" takes clear lead in Latvia's 15th Saeima election

According to preliminary data published on the Central Election Commission's (CVK) website, "Apvienotais saraksts" (AS) has emerged as the clear frontrunner in Latvia's 15th Saeima parliamentary election, after approximately 90% of votes have been counted.

Greens and Farmers Union at risk

One of the key storylines of this election is whether the Greens and Farmers Union (ZZS) will clear the mandatory 5% vote threshold required to win seats in parliament. Current results suggest the party may fail to reach that threshold, which would mean ZZS loses its parliamentary representation for the next four-year term.

Possible seat distribution

Should ZZS fail to enter parliament, projections indicate that the outgoing governing coalition — even without ZZS as a partner — could retain a majority, securing a combined 59 seats out of the 100 available in the Saeima. This would point to relative continuity as the process of forming the next government begins, although the precise distribution of seats among the remaining coalition partners is not yet finalized.

Count still underway

Vote counting in the 15th Saeima election remains in progress, with data so far covering about 90% of ballots cast. Final, official results will only be confirmed once all polling stations' data has been fully processed and verified, including ballots cast abroad and by mail, which typically take longer to tally.

The outcome of the election will be decisive for upcoming coalition negotiations, which generally begin once the final or near-final distribution of seats among the competing political parties becomes clear.