Scotland's World Cup hopes: Gymnastics of qualification and a must-win against Brazil

Scotland's national football team finds itself in a tight spot after Friday's defeat to Morocco (0-0?) at the World Cup. While still holding hopes of reaching the knockout stage, the most realistic route is to qualify as one of the eight best third-placed teams.

To achieve this, Scotland must defeat Brazil on Wednesday. Brazil is ranked sixth in the world while Scotland sits at 40th. Historically, Brazil has won eight of their 10 meetings, with two draws – the last in 1974. However, Scotland's spirited second-half performance against Morocco, creating several chances, offers some optimism ahead of the match in Miami.

If Scotland can secure at least one point against Brazil, four points would almost guarantee a spot in the last 32. The problem arises if Scotland suffers a heavy defeat, which would worsen their goal difference. Currently on three points with a goal difference of zero, even a narrow loss would leave them at -1.

Statistical analysis from Opta gives Scotland a 73.5% chance of advancing. Historically, a goal difference of -2 and three points might be enough, but the expanded tournament and varying team standards could disrupt predictions.

Scotland will also need help from other groups. Ideally, the bottom seeds in each group should avoid winning but also not suffer heavy defeats. For example, a comprehensive England win over Panama and Ghana would help, as would Argentina and Austria thrashing Jordan.

If Scotland finishes third and qualifies, there are 495 permutations to determine their opponent. The most likely scenario is facing Germany back in Boston. Other possibilities include Mexico in Mexico City or France in New York.

But first, Scotland must focus on getting a result against Brazil – a task that is easier said than done.