Slaidins: Russian security service's plan changes indicate preparation for wider mobilization

New signs have emerged in Russia that could point to preparations for a broader mobilization, even though the Kremlin has not officially announced such a decision. This was stated by Jānis Slaidins, a major in the Latvian National Armed Forces and a staff officer of the National Guard, in the TV24 programme “Current on the War in Ukraine”.

Slaidins drew attention to the activities of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia). The security service is reviewing civil defence plans and adapting them to the needs of mobilization, martial law and wartime conditions. The updated plans reportedly include protection and evacuation not only for military and civilian personnel but also for their family members.

The major noted that formally these changes are justified by the need to align previous documents with updated legislation. In practice, however, they indicate much more serious preparations. “This is no longer just on paper,” he stressed.

If mobilization were declared, Rosgvardia units would be tasked with guarding strategic facilities, preventing unrest and ensuring public order and security in the rear. For this reason, the plans also foresee the timely relocation of employees’ families away from territories that could be attacked or otherwise endangered.

According to Slaidins, the next step might be the refinement of regional plans, specifying which people would be evacuated, assembly points, movement routes, transport and temporary accommodation. Once such documents reach regional authorities, practical planning of human and material resources for a possible mobilization scenario would begin.

He also emphasised that if President Vladimir Putin decided to announce a new mobilization, it would be highly significant. “If everything is so fine and everything is going according to plan, as claimed in Russia, then the question arises: why is mobilization needed at all?” Slaidins said. In his view, such a decision would show that the war so far has not produced the expected results and that new resources are being sought. Putin has previously avoided a fresh mobilization because of considerable costs and political risks.

Finally, when asked whether the observed signs already resemble preparation for martial law, Slaidins answered: “Yes, it very much looks that way.”