Sociologist: Estonia needs a president who understands society well
After Alar Karis declined to run again, Estonian politicians must find a candidate who can secure 68 votes, but the parliamentary election campaign and political rivalry complicate reaching a consensus.
Following President Alar Karis's announcement that he will not seek a second term, members of the Riigikogu have just over two months to find a new candidate who can secure the required 68 votes. Analysts say this will be difficult, as the parliamentary election campaign is already underway and will complicate negotiations.
Tarmo Jüristo, head of the Liberal Citizen foundation, noted that the presidential and parliamentary electoral cycles have different lengths and are now overlapping. "Tugging the blanket and mutual attacks before the parliamentary elections will inevitably affect the presidential campaign. It would be good if politicians refrained from this, but in practice it is impossible to separate the two processes," he said.
Sociologist Juhan Kivirähk added that the Riigikogu should try not to mix the two campaigns, but he considers it unlikely that deputies will find a unified candidate who can get 68 votes, as political confrontation is too great. "The question is what we are looking for. If we need a constitutional law expert, the president could be Ülle Madise or Jüri Raidla. If a high-level foreign policy representative, then Jüri Luik or Joonatan Vseviov. But I believe the most important thing is that the president understands society well. Therefore, I would strongly recommend talking to Mati Heidmets," he noted.
Meanwhile, Art Johanson, an analyst at the Institute for Social Research, suggests that unexpected names may emerge, and even Alar Karis might return if the Riigikogu fails to elect a president. "I think it's possible because then he could receive more concrete proposals, especially if he has the coalition's support. Much depends on the Reform Party. Without them, no one will be elected. But their candidate might also not be elected. So if it goes to the electoral college, the stakes will rise and negotiations might begin. However, no other candidate can achieve the level of public support Karis currently has in just two months," he stressed.
The first round of the presidential election in the Riigikogu will take place on September 2.
