Finnish expert: Russia may want to test NATO's Article 5 commitment

Finnish foreign and security policy expert Henri Vanhanen believes Russia could be considering an operation designed to test the functioning of NATO's Article 5 — the alliance's collective defense principle — and that Finland itself could become a target of such an operation.

In an interview with the newspaper "Iltalehti," Vanhanen said that if Russian President Vladimir Putin sees an opportunity to carry out such a test, he might well take it. According to the expert, growing signs suggest Russia is prepared to keep escalating.

Warnings from several countries

In recent days, leaders of several European countries have warned about possible Russian action. Finnish President Alexander Stubb has called on citizens to be prepared for events such as acts of sabotage or drones entering the country's territory. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued a similar warning.

Full-scale war seen as unlikely

Vanhanen does not consider it realistic that Russia would attempt to open a full-scale military front against NATO across a broad area stretching from the Arctic to the Black or Mediterranean Sea, saying such a step would carry too much risk and unpredictability for Moscow.

A far more plausible scenario, in the expert's view, would be a small, limited incident through which Russia would test how unified NATO allies could respond together. As one possible scenario, Vanhanen cites a situation in which a drone would reach a Baltic state's territory while Russia claimed it had accidentally strayed off course.