Finnish Navy chief: Russia's presence in the Baltic Sea may have peaked

Finnish Navy commander Rear Admiral Tuomas Tiilikainen has said that Russia has probably reached the limit of its peacetime capabilities in the Baltic Sea, in an interview with the British broadcaster Sky News. In his words, the situation in the region is tense but stable. The remarks matter because the Baltic has seen growing concern over vessels linked to Russia's so-called shadow fleet, which are suspected of threatening undersea infrastructure.

The commander said the concerns include attempts to damage or spy on important undersea data cables, power lines and other critical infrastructure. He acknowledged that the Russian fleet watches what Finland and NATO do, and that Finland must likewise keep a close eye on Russian activity. Tiilikainen stressed, however, that there is no need to escalate the situation further; it should rather be eased.

The rear admiral spoke near his naval base in Turku, a city on Finland's south-western coast. He offered two possible explanations for the stability: the Russians may see no urgent need to strengthen their presence or combat readiness in the region, but they may also have reached the limit of their peacetime capacity.

Background

NATO allies launched the Baltic Sentry naval mission in January last year to step up surveillance of the Baltic Sea by ship and aircraft, following a series of suspected sabotage incidents against undersea cables and power lines. Elements of Russia's shadow fleet are considered the main suspects.

Last week a Finnish court found the captain and another crew member guilty of sabotage after their cargo ship damaged two undersea telecommunications cables linking Finland and Estonia in December 2025. The captain is reportedly a Russian citizen. Tiilikainen said there had been no further attacks on Finnish undersea infrastructure since that incident.

Finnish authorities detained the cargo ship Fitburg in connection with the case on 31 December 2025. It was travelling from Russia to Israel. The vessel was released two weeks later, but some crew members were barred from leaving Finland. The investigation was completed in June.