Finland's Stubb urges Europe not to overreact to Russian threats

Finnish President Alexander Stubb has urged European partners to avoid overreacting to escalating warnings about Russian hybrid warfare and sabotage, speaking to Politico on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

The comments come as senior European officials increasingly sound alarms over intensifying Russian activity. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned Moscow could send drones or missiles into NATO countries supporting Ukraine within the coming months, while the head of the Czech security service cautioned that Russia could attempt a limited incursion, false-flag provocations or a large-scale influence campaign within months rather than years.

Stubb acknowledged Europe must prepare for continued hybrid and sabotage attacks, but stressed that overreacting would hand Russia a symbolic victory, since Moscow's goal is to destabilize and frighten Europe into scaling back support for Ukraine — not to trigger full-scale military conflict with NATO, which he said is neither in Russia's interest nor within its capacity.

He praised Germany's recent decision to formally attribute the attempted Leipzig drone attack to Russia, calling it the right approach: naming the culprit and spelling out consequences. At the same time, he criticized what he described as overreaction from some intelligence services suggesting an invasion could be imminent. Finland, he said, sees no evidence of an imminent military threat despite monitored activity along its border with Russia — which makes up half of NATO's entire border with the country.

Stubb expressed cautious optimism about the upcoming meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in New York. While ruling out a peace deal this week, he said a framework for a Black Sea ceasefire tied to grain or energy trade would represent progress. He also voiced hope for further peace talks in coming weeks, including a potential meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelenskyy at the G20 summit in Miami in December, should Trump manage to bring both leaders to the table. Stubb dismissed suggestions he could become Europe's chief negotiator in future talks with Russia, saying Europe is unlikely to have a single representative and describing his own role as supporting efforts from behind the scenes.