Finnish report weighs four scenarios for Russia's future up to 2045
Finland's defence, foreign and interior ministries have produced a report outlining four possible paths for Russia through 2045. ERR commentator Harri Tiido says it is worth reading, but notes that long-range forecasts can be upended by unforeseen developments.
Finland's ministries of defence, foreign affairs and the interior, working with a broad group of Russia experts, have published a report titled "Scenarios for the Future of Russia", looking at how the country might develop up to 2045. The document is discussed by Harri Tiido, who writes for the Russian-language service of Estonia's public broadcaster ERR. It matters because it shows how a neighbouring country is preparing for a range of Russia-related security challenges.
The report continues a series of three earlier editions: "Russia of Challenges" (2007–2008), "Russia of Change" (2011–2012) and "Russia of Force" (2018–2019). The main section runs to 150 pages, while an appendix published alongside it with additional material covers about 300. The text is in Finnish.
Four scenarios
The first scenario is a renewing Russia. The war in Ukraine ends in a compromise and a peace treaty, Ukraine and Moldova join the European Union, and a new generation takes power in Moscow. The country becomes a pragmatic regional power, though great-power thinking does not disappear.
The second is a fading Russia. The West contains Russian imperialism, Ukraine and Moldova join the EU and NATO, and Europe's strategic autonomy grows as the transatlantic link weakens significantly. The collapse of the imperial project plunges Russia into crisis, while propaganda portrays a peace deal as shameful and pushes rearmament in cooperation with China.
The third is an imperialist Russia. Moscow achieves its aims in Ukraine, gains strength with Chinese backing, and a new Eurasian military alliance forms. Russia would probably start a major war in Europe.
The fourth is a Russia of turmoil. The country sinks into violence, Europe also weakens, the United States abandons Europe, and Article 5 of the NATO treaty loses its meaning. Only nuclear weapons and repression keep the state from breaking apart.
The author's remarks
Tiido notes that developments such as artificial intelligence could make two-decade forecasts meaningless. He also suggests looking at Russia's future beyond a Moscow-centred approach, taking its regions into account. The report's main recommendation is to prepare for different outcomes, resist Russian aggression and support Ukraine and the independence of other neighbouring countries.
