Starmer expected to announce exit plan, clearing way for Burnham to become PM

Keir Starmer is expected to announce a timetable for his departure on Monday morning, according to cabinet ministers, clearing the way for Andy Burnham to become prime minister without a formal contest by the autumn. This would make Burnham the UK's seventh prime minister in a decade.

Although Starmer insisted on Friday he would fight an anticipated leadership challenge from Burnham, more than half a dozen cabinet ministers have privately told him his time is up. The prime minister spent the weekend at the Chequers country retreat finalizing a likely exit plan. The most likely timetable involves him staying in office until the autumn, allowing a new leader to rally Labour at the party's annual conference at the end of September.

One key uncertainty is whether Burnham will be the only candidate. Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary last month, has said he will stand in any contest and has the backing of 81 MPs. However, there is a growing presumption that Streeting will not compete, either because he lacks the necessary support or because he would likely lose a vote among Labour MPs. If Streeting does challenge, others—including one or more women in the cabinet—may also join the race.

Despite Starmer saying he would speak to Burnham after the weekend, it is understood he may decide not to. Some in his inner circle believe that setting out his departure unilaterally would allow him to claim he is leaving on his own terms.

A government source said an autumn date seems most likely. Early preparations for a possible handover have already begun. Since the May local elections, seven cabinet ministers have told Starmer he should consider his future for the sake of the party and the country. One cabinet minister noted that over the course of Sunday, "a shift appears to have taken place in his mind" making resignations less likely.

Even late last week, some Starmer friends insisted he should fight on, calling it presumptuous for Burnham to expect a prime minister who won a landslide majority less than two years ago to step aside for a regional mayor out of parliament since 2017. But as the lack of support became more clear, even allies began to accept the new reality.