Neither war nor peace in Tigray: is Ethiopia's latest conflict really over?
After a brief fight, Ethiopia's army controls Mekelle, the capital of the northern Tigray region, but residents report continued clashes elsewhere. Analysts disagree on whether a prolonged war or a low-level guerrilla campaign lies ahead.
In Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, where fighting resumed in late September between the national army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the party that ran the region for decades, the situation remains uncertain. Federal forces entered the regional capital, Mekelle, in less than two weeks, but whether the conflict is truly over is disputed. It matters because the previous Tigray war of 2020–2022, which officially ended in 2022, is estimated to have claimed hundreds of thousands of lives.
A swift advance, an unclear future
The TPLF left the towns in what it called a "strategic withdrawal", so the army met little resistance. Hundreds of people are reported to have died, including dozens killed in drone strikes and air force bombing. Government officials say the war is effectively over and that only TPLF elements remain to be cleared out. Getachew Reda, a senior TPLF figure who switched sides and now advises the prime minister, says stabilising the region should be the priority.
TPLF spokesperson Mikael Asgedom, speaking from an undisclosed location, denies defeat. He says the group deliberately let the army advance deeper so it could be isolated, and that a major counteroffensive is being prepared. Residents tell the BBC that fighting with heavy artillery and drones continues in central, northern and north-western Tigray, including near Sheraro, close to the Eritrean border. The BBC cannot report from the region, and verified information is hard to obtain.
Forecasts differ
Analyst Cameron Hudson says the TPLF has lost public support, lacks advanced weaponry and has been weakened by infighting. He expects a guerrilla campaign rather than a wider conflict. Yared Tibebu, an Ethiopian commentator based in the US, instead foresees a prolonged war, citing the TPLF's history of protracted struggles. In September, seven rebel groups led by the TPLF formed the Alliance for Survival, which aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government.
In Mekelle, salon owner Firut Me'ar says people have no money and no morale. She says residents simply want peace and a chance to rebuild their lives.
