Trump restarts Iran war, risking political disaster in midterms

President Donald Trump has restarted military strikes against Iran, risking a political backlash in the upcoming midterm elections. After the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed at the Palace of Versailles on June 17 collapsed, Trump ordered renewed attacks on Iranian military and infrastructure targets. Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes against US allies in the Gulf.

Experts warn the escalation could lead to a ground invasion and a long-term "forever war." Former State Department adviser Nate Swanson said the escalation has exceeded expectations and is likely to fail. Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, called the move a "total loser" for Republican midterm prospects, suggesting Trump is driven by a personal vendetta rather than electoral concerns.

At the heart of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global energy exports passed before the war. Iran closed the strait after US and Israeli attacks and now uses it as leverage. The MoU aimed for a 60-day ceasefire and sanctions relief in exchange for reopening the strait, but disputes over shipping lanes emerged. Some analysts blame poor US negotiation; others, like Johns Hopkins professor Vali Nasr, argue the MoU's failure was intentional, allowing Trump to replenish oil reserves and weaken Iran's hand.

Trump's administration lacks Iran specialists, relying instead on his usual negotiators: Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and JD Vance. Experts caution that Trump has misjudged his adversary. Iran is willing to endure more than expected, increasing the risk of further escalation, including a potential invasion of Kharg Island, Iran's oil export hub. Former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel stressed the need for strategic patience and diplomacy, warning of sustained tit-for-tat operations over weeks or months.