Trump says Iran war will end "immediately" after US midterm elections

War expected to run until the vote

US President Donald Trump said he does not believe the war with Iran will end before November's midterm elections. "I think the war's going to end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer," he said of Tehran on Wednesday, speaking en route to Texas for the Republican Party's first-ever midterm election convention.

Trump is facing falling approval ratings and pressure from within his own party to end the conflict, which is now in its seventh month after he initially predicted it would last only weeks. Its knock-on effects on fuel and grocery prices have contributed to his declining popularity.

Oil prices and campaign messaging

Oil prices climbed to $100 (£74) a barrel on Wednesday, the first time since July, driven by intensified fighting in the Middle East. Trump said prices would begin tumbling right after the election, though he acknowledged it could take "a little bit longer than the midterm" for the full effect to show. At the Texas convention, he repeated that oil prices would fall "as soon as we win the war with Iran," and admitted that some Americans had told him they wished he had not entered the war, given rising gasoline costs.

Trump also claimed, without providing evidence, that Iran was trying to influence the election to install a "weak" group in government — an apparent reference to Democrats — that would let Tehran keep what he called its nuclear weapon. Iran has repeatedly denied seeking nuclear weapons. He added that further negotiations with Iran were possible but not currently being pursued.

Escalating fighting in the region

According to the BBC, fighting has intensified in recent days, with attacks on oil facilities across the region pushing up global fuel prices; US diesel prices hit an all-time high earlier this week. On Wednesday, the US military reportedly struck five oil tankers linked to Iran, and Tehran responded by attacking two US Navy destroyers and eight oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, causing what Iranian state media described as "heavy damage." A day earlier, Iran-linked Houthi forces in Yemen launched attacks on Saudi Arabia, sparking fires at oil facilities. The fighting resumed after a 60-day US-Iran ceasefire formally expired last month.

The midterm elections are set for 3 November, with Republicans at risk of losing control of Congress — historically, the sitting president's party tends to lose seats in such elections. Analysts have also warned that rising fuel costs could push US interest rates higher.