Trump touts major potash deal with Belarus, but Lukashenko says there's none left to sell

US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington is working on a "massive deal" to purchase potash fertilizer from Belarus, claiming the price would be substantially lower than what the US currently pays Canada — a move he called good news for American farmers and ranchers. The announcement comes as Trump wages a separate trade dispute with Canada.

Lukashenko says supply is already spoken for

Just hours before Trump's post, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that even if Belarus regained full access to Western markets for its potash, it would have nothing extra to sell — all of its output is already under contract. He noted that Belarus has successfully shifted its exports eastward, pointing to ongoing talks with the Americans as proof, but stressed that the country simply lacks the volume to supply additional markets, including Western ones.

US import dependence

The United States relies on imports for nearly all of its potash fertilizer. Canada supplies close to 80% of those imports, with Russia providing roughly another 12%. Belarus ranks among the world's largest potash producers alongside Canada, Russia, and China, but sanctions have long restricted its access to Western markets. Those sanctions followed the violent crackdown on Belarus's 2020 protests and the Lukashenko government's role in supporting Russia's war against Ukraine.

Warming ties since Trump's reelection

Since Trump returned to office for a second term, the US has moved to improve relations with Lukashenko, including lifting sanctions on Belarus's potash sector. The European Union, however, has kept its own sanctions on Belarusian potash imports in place.