Tusk Warns of Possible Accidental Russian Strikes on NATO Territory This Fall and Winter

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has warned that the risk of Russian attacks accidentally striking the territory of Ukraine's allies is set to increase during the coming autumn and winter.

The warning follows a series of incidents that point to mounting tension near Poland's border with Ukraine and along its Baltic coastline. In late July, Tusk said "everything indicates" that a Russian cruise missile had struck Polish territory in the Lublin region near the Ukrainian border, leaving a roughly 10-meter crater but causing no casualties.

In mid-September, a drone found off Poland's coast was reported by prosecutors to have been carrying an explosive warhead. Investigators have not yet determined what mission the uncrewed aerial vehicle had been carrying out.

At the same time, domestic tension in Poland linked to attitudes toward Ukraine has also been rising. In early September, reports indicated a growing number of crimes committed against Ukrainians living in Poland, coinciding with intensifying anti-Ukraine rhetoric from right-wing politicians. This trend adds to the pressures facing Tusk's government, which has backed Ukraine throughout the war.

Meanwhile, Poland's political landscape is also shifting: the country's leading opposition party split apart in August, though analysts note this fracture may not necessarily work in Tusk's favor politically.

Taken together, these developments underscore how Poland is increasingly feeling the direct and indirect effects of the war in Ukraine — both through military incidents and shifting public sentiment — as Russian aggression continues and its consequences spread beyond Ukraine's borders.