Ukraine risks losing 30 million tonnes of farm exports due to port blockade

Ukraine's Minister of Agrarian Policy and Food, Taras Vysotskyi, said the country is currently exporting only up to 50% of its agricultural production potential because of Russia's ongoing blockade of Black Sea ports.

According to the minister, without access to deep-water Black Sea ports, Ukraine can ship out roughly half of the export-oriented crops it grows. This means the country stands to lose around 30 million tonnes of agricultural exports, valued at approximately $30 billion, during the current marketing year.

September figures

In September, Ukraine successfully exported 2.4 million tonnes of agricultural products, equal to 46% of the volume that should have been shipped. This included 1.4 million tonnes of grain (38% of potential), 444,000 tonnes of oilseeds (83%), 311,000 tonnes of oil (64%), and 280,000 tonnes of meal (46%).

Vysotskyi noted that the 46% figure has remained essentially unchanged since 20 September, confirming an earlier forecast that 45–50% is the realistic maximum achievable through currently available routes.

Export routes

Rail shipments accounted for 993,000 tonnes, or 41% of the total, in line with forecasts. The Danube route carried 1.3 million tonnes, or 54%, while road transport handled 120,000 tonnes, or 5%. The minister said volumes moved by both rail and the Danube increased in September compared to August.

For comparison, August exports reached only 33% of potential, while early September figures stood at 630,000 tonnes, around 40% of potential when ports were still operational.

Türkiye and the United Nations are working to arrange new talks between Russia and Ukraine on a possible Black Sea ceasefire, aiming to bring together fragmented efforts to protect grain shipments amid rising global food prices.