Patriot missile stocks for Ukraine exhausted, warns RUSI analyst
Ukraine's Patriot interceptor supplies have run dry, leaving the country unable to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles, according to Jack Watling. The RUSI researcher says Kyiv must prepare for a winter with heavily disrupted infrastructure while NATO has failed to boost production.
In 2018, Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia's newest ballistic missiles were 'invincible'. Two years later, Moscow began using them against Ukrainian command centres, critical infrastructure and airfields. Ukraine gained an effective shield only in 2023, when Patriot systems arrived from Western partners.
But the supply of Patriot interceptors has now dried up. According to Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, Ukraine's interception rate has collapsed from above 70% to zero. As a result, Russian missiles are striking infrastructure night after night without facing resistance. The analyst argues this was foreseeable and that there are no quick fixes.
Watling explains that shooting down a tactical ballistic missile such as the Iskander is extremely demanding. The target descends from the upper atmosphere at five times the speed of sound and manoeuvres in flight. The defensive system must track it precisely and guide an interceptor to the right point. Only a system like the Patriot, developed over decades with US investment, can perform this task.
Global production remains limited. The US and licensed manufacturers in Germany and Japan produce around 840 Patriot interceptors per year: 240 older PAC-2s and 600 smaller PAC-3s. Russia, meanwhile, makes about 750 Iskander missiles annually and plans to increase output. It also uses Kinzhal missiles and converted air-defence weapons. A reliable defence typically requires two or three interceptors per incoming missile, and a single battery protects only a small area. Ukraine, therefore, would need three to four times the world's annual output to cover its entire territory. Allies have already handed over their own stocks.
The global shortage has become acute after the US attack on Iran. Iran has fired more than 170 ballistic missiles per day, while Russia typically uses fewer than ten in one strike. In one case, 17 Patriot interceptors were needed to stop a single Iranian missile. Iran still has many more in storage.
Watling concludes that Ukraine will not receive enough Patriot missiles before winter to protect its national grid. Kyiv should plan for severe power cuts and disperse hardened water, sanitation and heating systems.
The country is also pressing Washington to activate Starlink navigation over Russian territory so Ukrainian drones can hunt missile launchers, but such operations are extremely difficult. Another option is to target Russia's missile factories, though they are well defended. Partners could increase funding and industrial support for Ukraine's cruise-missile industry, or revisit the issue of supplying German Taurus weapons.
The deeper lesson, Watling says, is that NATO has failed at defence planning. The numbers have been known since before 2022, yet neither Patriot production nor alternatives like the Franco-Italian SAMP-T have been significantly expanded. This complacency is devastating for Ukraine today and leaves Europe vulnerable in the future. Watling finds it remarkable that Europe has remained idle while watching the consequences on its own border.
