Ukrainian Commander: Russian Advance Slowed by Heavy Losses

Heavy losses are one of the reasons Russia's advance in Ukraine has slowed this year, according to Major General Oleh Apostol, commander of Ukraine's Air Assault Forces, who spoke to the outlet Politico. His assessment matters because the situation on the front line influences both allied military support for Ukraine and Kyiv's position in potential negotiations with Moscow.

Casualties and slow progress

Apostol said the Russian offensive continues, but its troops are not achieving rapid operational successes that would allow a quick push forward. If Russian forces manage to capture just one strip of forest in a month, he said, that cannot be considered a significant military achievement.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has stated that in recent months Russia has lost more than 40,000 soldiers every month, killed or seriously wounded. According to preliminary data, the figure may have exceeded 50,000 in October.

Politico notes that neither Ukraine nor Russia publishes precise figures on its military losses. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington estimated that from the start of the full-scale invasion to June 2026, Russia had lost about 1.4 million soldiers, including 400,000–450,000 killed. Ukrainian losses over the same period were estimated at 525,000–625,000, including 125,000–150,000 killed.

Ukrainian counteroffensives

Apostol said that this year Ukrainian forces have recaptured more than 800 square kilometres of territory in two local-scale counteroffensive operations. In his words, they carry not only military but also political significance: they demonstrate Ukraine's ability to withstand pressure and give allies arguments to keep providing aid. Setbacks, by contrast, could increase external pressure on Kyiv to agree to talks.

The commander also said some of Russia's publicly announced gains are propaganda. At times soldiers with flags are sent to individual positions to film supposed proof of control over wider areas, but such soldiers are often quickly eliminated. "A Russian flag at a position does not always mean that the position has actually been taken and is under control," Apostol said.

Ukraine plans its operations cautiously to minimise personnel losses, given its limited manpower. "You have to attack where there is a chance of success," the commander said. In many cases the main aim of operations is to stabilise the front line rather than liberate new territory, since an attack on a well-prepared and numerically superior opponent may not produce the expected result.