Ukraine protests shift focus: from defense minister to commander-in-chief

Ukraine is experiencing its second wave of protests since the full-scale invasion, but this time it is entirely autonomous, without the Western diplomatic pressure that accompanied last year's 'cardboard square' actions. The protesters initially rallied in support of the dismissed defense minister, but now increasingly demand the removal of the commander-in-chief.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has found himself in an awkward position after arbitrating between the popular minister and the unpopular military chief. His decision to fire Minister Fedorov turned him from an arbiter into a party in the conflict. Now, public attitudes toward Zelenskyy are measured by how he handles Fedorov's fate—as a champion of reform or of the status quo.

During the protest, the main slogan evolved from demanding the minister's return to calling for the commander-in-chief's dismissal. While this shift partially benefits Zelenskyy by removing his role as the 'main antihero,' replacing the commander-in-chief alone may not pacify the street if the new person fails to meet demands for change.

Author Pavlo Kazarin argues that the protest is a symbolic struggle over the vision of the future. Fedorov has become a symbol of hope, and his dismissal is seen as an attempt to take that hope away. Without elections that usually renew public optimism, personnel rotation is the only way to reset expectations. The president's decision has broken the social contract that has existed since the invasion: society accepts legitimacy in exchange for fairness and reasoned decisions.

Like last July's protest against corruption, this time society draws a 'red line' on defense issues. Kazarin concludes that the war has not broken the feedback loop between the street and government offices—and how this situation is resolved may determine Ukraine's victory scenario.