Ukrainian strikes push Russian grain exports from Black Sea toward the Baltic
Russian grain exporters are increasingly rerouting shipments from Black Sea and Azov Sea ports to the Baltic, including via Latvia, as Ukrainian attacks cripple export capacity, Reuters reports. Russia's overall grain export capacity has dropped by more than 80%.
Russian grain exporters are shifting shipments away from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov toward Baltic Sea ports as Ukrainian military strikes continue to hit vessels and port infrastructure, according to Reuters.
During the last export season, from July 2025 to June 2026, Russia moved 46.3 million tons of grain through its Black Sea and Azov ports, accounting for 90% of its seaborne exports. Its Baltic ports handled only about 1 million tons during that period.
A rapid shift
The balance is changing quickly. By August 18, rail booking requests for grain shipments to Russian Baltic ports this season had already reached 5 million tons, an industry source told Reuters — compared with 6 million tons booked for the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse.
Russian exporters are increasingly turning to ports in the Baltic states, primarily Latvia. Russia's Grain Union estimates that exports through these ports could reach 5–6 million tons this season, potentially rising to 10 million tons if Estonia's ports also open up to such shipments.
Export capacity collapse
Ukrainian strikes have knocked out more than 80% of Russia's grain export capacity. In August, wheat exports totaled just 1.9 million tons, according to expert estimates — the lowest level in 16 years.
