US Open: Martin Damm to face Frances Tiafoe in first round
Americans Martin Damm and Frances Tiafoe meet in the US Open first round on Monday, August 31, with the match starting around 8:10 p.m. ET on ESPN2. As reported by PrizePicks, Tiafoe is the clear favorite, though Damm's powerful serve could make things competitive.
The matchup and context
An all-American first-round clash headlines Monday's US Open schedule, as Martin Damm takes on Frances Tiafoe. According to PrizePicks, the match is set to begin at approximately 8:10 p.m. ET and will air on ESPN2.
The two previously met at last year's US Open, where Tiafoe came out on top in a hard-fought four-setter, 6-4, 7-5, 6-7(8), 7-5. Tiafoe currently leads their head-to-head series 1-0.
Recent form
Tiafoe arrives fresh off a runner-up finish at the Cincinnati Open, a promising result after a slower start to the summer. On his way to the final, he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime, Lorenzo Musetti, and Brandon Nakashima before falling to Arthur Fils in three sets — all opponents currently ranked inside the top 20.
Damm has climbed back into the top 100 this summer, though his hard-court results have been mixed. He scored a notable win over top-10 player Daniil Medvedev in Winston-Salem, but went just 5-4 across four tournaments including qualifying, with his other wins coming against players outside the top 100. Overall this season, Damm is 6-7 on hard courts, compared to Tiafoe's 21-10.
Per Tennis Abstract's Elo ratings on hard courts, Tiafoe ranks 14th in the world, while Damm sits at 97th. Based on those numbers, PrizePicks projects Tiafoe to win 82.8% of the time.
Strengths and weaknesses
As PrizePicks notes, Damm's biggest asset is his serve — the 22-year-old ranks 11th in serve shot quality over the past 52 weeks and has posted a 17.2% ace rate on hard courts this season. Tiafoe, meanwhile, gets aced 13.5% of the time on the surface, the second-worst rate among the top 50 players, which could allow Damm to hold his own on serve. Damm's return game is a different story — he has won just 32.9% of his return points on hard courts this year and ranks 87th in return shot quality.
Betting market
On PrizePicks' winner market, Damm's payout multiplier stood at 3.84x compared to 1.21x for Tiafoe, reflecting Tiafoe's status as the heavy favorite. Analysts pointed to a projected total of around 39.5 games in the match, suggesting another tight, multi-set contest similar to last year's encounter.
