USDA Raises Global Wheat Crop Forecast, EU Figures Unchanged

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has raised its 2026/27 world wheat production forecast by 5.1 million tonnes, to 827.5 million tonnes, in its November grain market report. The corn production forecast was lowered by 2 million tonnes to 1,291.5 million tonnes. The European Union's wheat balance sheet has not changed.

Wheat

The increase stems mainly from larger crops in Argentina, Australia, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Australia's forecast rose by 1.5 million tonnes (to 32.5 million), Argentina's also by 1.5 million (to 23.0 million), Kazakhstan's by 0.8 million (to 15.8 million) and Ukraine's by 0.5 million (to 26.5 million tonnes).

World consumption is expected to reach 829.6 million tonnes, 8 million more than in the previous season. Exports are forecast at 208.7 million tonnes, 0.3 million less than in the October report and 17.3 million less than last season. Russia's exports were cut by 1 million tonnes (to 39 million) and Ukraine's by 1 million (to 11.5 million). Global ending stocks are projected at 280.8 million tonnes, 4.8 million more than previously estimated.

For the EU, wheat production remains at 133 million tonnes, consumption at 115.75 million tonnes and end-of-season stocks at 11.72 million tonnes.

Corn

Production was reduced in the United States (by 3.5 million, to 403.7 million tonnes), South Africa (by 1.5 million, to 15 million) and the EU (by 0.5 million, to 47.5 million). Part of the loss is offset by Brazil (to 141 million tonnes) and Argentina (to 57 million), each up by 2 million tonnes.

World consumption was lowered by 2.5 million to 1,318 million tonnes. Exports were adjusted by 1.3 million to 209.4 million tonnes. Global stocks are set to rise by 1.5 million to 281.9 million tonnes. EU consumption was cut by 1.5 million (to 69.5 million), imports by 1 million (to 22.5 million), and end-of-season stocks are steady at 5 million tonnes.