German regional elections could determine Chancellor Merz's fate
Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern go to the polls on Sunday in elections that opinion surveys suggest could deal heavy losses to Chancellor Friedrich Merz's CDU. The results may intensify pressure on Merz after 16 months in office.
Two German states are holding regional elections on Sunday that could add fresh political pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Polling suggests his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) risks damaging losses in both Berlin and the north-eastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
In Berlin, the CDU is competing with the left-wing Die Linke for first place, with the possibility of losing its grip on the capital. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the CDU has been polling only just above the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, raising the prospect of its worst-ever result in a state election.
The vote follows a landslide win two weeks ago by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Saxony-Anhalt, where CDU support was cut in half. Speculation has grown in Germany that Merz could be replaced mid-term if the party's fortunes do not improve, though he has said he intends to continue, despite weak approval ratings.
In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD hopes to build on its recent success, but the centre-left SPD has seen a late surge behind state premier Manuela Schwesig, who has branded herself as the "woman against blue" — a reference to the AfD's party colour. Her personal popularity contrasts sharply with her party's weaker national standing, where the SPD remains in an uneasy coalition with Merz's CDU.
Some branches of the AfD are classified as right-wing extremist by domestic intelligence services, a label the party rejects. Its anti-immigration and pro-Russia positioning has found particular support in Germany's former communist east.
Merz's supporters argue he inherited many of the country's problems, including a sluggish economy, high energy costs and divisive immigration debates. But his blunt communication style, including remarks urging Germans to work more, has fuelled irritation. Eight state leaders publicly backed Merz this week, though discontent within his own party continues to grow.
