Shock in Germany as far-right AfD scores historic win in Saxony-Anhalt

Germany woke on Monday to the news that the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) had swept a state election in Saxony-Anhalt, taking 44% of the vote — just short of an absolute majority. Turnout surged to 77.8%, up from 60.3% in 2021, suggesting the party successfully mobilised many previously disengaged voters.

The result marks a historic threshold: never since the Nazi era has a far-right party come this close to regional power in Germany, despite 13 years of mainstream efforts to exclude it from government. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who was elected to lead the Christian Democratic Union in 2022 on a promise to halve AfD support, admitted he was "deeply shocked" but vowed to remain in office.

The AfD's lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, a former perfume salesman, has capitalised on discontent over the economy and migration, even though irregular immigration has actually declined since Merz took office. Analysts point to a mix of factors driving support, including nostalgia for the communist east and resentment among poorer eastern Germans who feel treated as second-class citizens.

Should the AfD form a government, potentially in coalition with the hard-left, pro-Russian Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht party, Siegmund would gain control over education, policing and public broadcasting. The party has already proposed changes to school curricula and wants to defund anti-racism programmes.

The outcome could reverberate across Europe given the AfD's climate scepticism and pro-Kremlin leanings. Germany's foreign minister recently directly accused Russia of hybrid warfare against the country. Further state elections are due later this month, including in Berlin, where the AfD is now polling at 18%.