Merz faces political humiliation whatever Saxony-Anhalt election delivers
Sunday's regional vote in Saxony-Anhalt could bring either an outright win for the far-right AfD or a messy coalition scramble for Chancellor Merz's conservatives — both scenarios spell trouble for the embattled German leader.
Germany's eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt holds a regional election on Sunday, and pre-election polling suggests no outcome will be good news for Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is expected to win decisively, finishing well ahead of Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
Should the AfD secure an outright majority and govern alone, it would mark the first time since World War II that a far-right party has gained real governing power in a German state. Some CDU figures nonetheless see a silver lining, believing an AfD administration might fail to deliver on its promises, discrediting the party and allowing conservatives to attack from the opposition benches.
If the AfD falls short
Polls increasingly suggest the AfD may miss an outright majority. In that case, the CDU would need to cobble together support from left-leaning parties, including the far-left Die Linke, projected to finish third. Since the CDU has ruled out formal cooperation with both the AfD and Die Linke, it would likely form a minority government with the Social Democrats and possibly the Greens — while still depending on Die Linke's backing to pass legislation.
Some within the CDU warn that such dependence would weaken the party and hand the AfD ammunition to portray conservatives as covert leftists. Internal resistance is growing against Merz's so-called "firewall" policy of refusing to work with the AfD, which critics argue has only strengthened the far right by forcing conservatives into left-wing alliances.
Merz, already the least popular chancellor on record after 16 months in office, is facing quiet talk within his own party about replacing him. He has been booed during rare campaign appearances in eastern Germany, and some local conservative politicians no longer want him on the campaign trail. The AfD is also expected to win an upcoming vote in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, and concerns are growing that the party may contest Sunday's results, having already raised doubts about mail-in ballots.
