German chancellor's future in doubt as two states vote
Chancellor Friedrich Merz's political future is on the line as voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania head to the polls on Sunday, with the far-right AfD hoping to extend its recent gains.
Voters in two German states — the capital Berlin and the Baltic coast state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania — go to the polls on Sunday in elections that could shape the political fate of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The vote comes two weeks after a striking result in Saxony-Anhalt, where the anti-immigration, pro-Kremlin Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) recorded its best-ever showing in a regional election.
About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Berlin and nearly 1.3 million in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The AfD is expected to again draw support away from Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU). Merz's personal approval has fallen to 10%, and he has cancelled plans to address the UN General Assembly in New York in order to stay in Berlin after the elections.
The two races
In Berlin, the CDU is competing for first place with the far-left Die Linke, which has proposed expropriating corporate landlords to address rising housing costs — about 85% of Berlin households rent their homes, and advertised rents have nearly doubled since 2014. The AfD is also polling third or fourth in the capital. Mayor Kai Wegner of the CDU dropped his re-election bid in July after struggling to explain his actions during a major power blackout last winter.
In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the outlook is even bleaker for Merz: the AfD and the Social Democrats are running neck and neck, while the CDU risks its first single-digit result in 75 years or even falling below the 5% threshold needed for parliamentary representation.
What it means for Merz
While the AfD narrowly missed an outright majority in Saxony-Anhalt, polls suggest it will fall well short of that in Sunday's votes. Still, Berenberg bank noted the chance of a CDU revolt against the unpopular chancellor has risen from 20% to roughly 35% over the past ten days. Merz has vowed to serve his full four-year term, but his credibility has suffered from unmet campaign promises on economic growth and curbing the AfD.
