Do Climate Changes Cause More Heavy Rains? Latvian Data Shows Different Picture
In July, precipitation in Kurzeme has exceeded the monthly norm by two to three times in some places, but long-term data does not confirm that climate change leads to more frequent heavy rains in Latvia.
This month, Latvia, particularly the Kurzeme region, has experienced heavy rain showers, with precipitation amounts in some areas doubling or even tripling the climatic monthly norm. Such events are often attributed to climate change, but long-term data compiled by the Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre (LVĢMC) shows a different picture. Long-term observations do not reveal a statistically significant increase in the frequency of heavy rains. Although extreme rain events occur in some summers, they fall within natural variability. Researchers point out that specific events cannot be directly linked to climate change without detailed attribution analysis. This means that while global warming generally increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation, regional data for Latvia does not clearly confirm such a trend. Similar extreme rainfalls have been recorded in previous decades, highlighting the role of natural fluctuations. Therefore, conclusions about the impact of climate change on particular heavy rain events should be drawn with caution.
