Exit Poll: United List Decisively Leads 15th Saeima Election
A Saturday exit poll shows the United List with a clear lead in Latvia's 15th Saeima election, with five more parties potentially clearing the 5% threshold. Final results depend on official Central Election Commission data.
A Saturday exit poll conducted by the national news agency LETA together with Latvian Public Media (LSM) and Riga Stradiņš University (RSU) shows the United List (AS) with a decisive lead in the 15th Saeima election, with around 35.6% support among surveyed voters.
According to the poll, five more parties could clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament: Latvia First with 11.3%, The Progressives with 11.1%, Sovereign Power/New Latvians with 10.8%, the National Alliance with 8.7%, and New Unity with 6.7%. However, the final composition of the Saeima will only be confirmed by official data from the Central Election Commission (CVK).
Parties at risk of missing out
The Greens and Farmers Union polled at 3.7%, Latvia's Development at 3.1%, and We Change the Rules at 3%, all below the 5% threshold. Several smaller parties scored under 2%, a level that still guarantees state funding until the next election: Stability! at 1.7%, Rising Sun for Latvia at 1.3%, Gobzems' List at 0.9%, Harmony Centre at 0.6%, and the New Conservative Party at 0.2%.
Poll conditions
More than 6,500 voters were surveyed at over 70 polling stations across Latvia. Some 30% of respondents declined to reveal their choice, matching the rate seen four years ago. Non-disclosure rose notably in Zemgale, a traditional stronghold for the Greens and Farmers Union, suggesting that party's actual result could be higher than polled. In Riga and Latgale, the Sovereign Power/New Latvians list was most frequently named among respondents, while Latvia First received the most support overall in Latgale.
Early voting also played a larger role this year, with 11.2% of voters casting ballots before election day, compared with 4.11% four years ago; those voters were not included in the exit poll. Methodological support for the survey was provided by the SKDS research centre. The CVK said initial results would be announced overnight, with preliminary results from most polling stations expected Sunday.
