Voter poll: United List wins Saeima election decisively

An election-day voter survey shows the United List (AS) winning Latvia's Saeima election decisively, with 35.6% support among those polled. Five other parties are projected to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament: "Latvia First" (11.3%), the Progressives (11.1%), "Sovereign Power"/"New Latvians" (10.8%), the National Alliance (8.7%), and "New Unity" (6.7%). The final composition of the 15th Saeima will be determined only once the Central Election Commission (CVK) finalizes official results.

According to the poll, three parties would fall short of the threshold: the Union of Greens and Farmers (3.7%), "For Latvia's Development" (3.1%), and "We Change the Rules" (3%). Parties receiving less than 2% would still qualify for state funding until the next election — among them "For Stability!" (1.7%), "Rising Sun for Latvia" (1.3%), the Gobzems list (0.9%), the Harmony Centre (0.6%), and the New Conservative Party (0.2%).

Survey details and regional patterns

The poll surveyed more than 6,500 voters who had just cast ballots at over 70 polling stations nationwide. Some 30% of respondents declined to reveal their choice — unchanged from four years ago. Refusal rates rose notably in Zemgale, a traditional stronghold of the Greens and Farmers Union, suggesting that party's actual support could exceed the polled figure. Refusals were also slightly more common in Riga and Vidzeme, while voters in Kurzeme and Latgale were more forthcoming.

Among those who withheld their choice, roughly two-thirds spoke Latvian, but in Riga and Latgale nearly half spoke Russian, indicating that parties traditionally backed by Russian-speaking voters may see larger-than-polled results. In areas where Harmony and later "For Stability!" previously led, voters most often named the "Sovereign Power"/"New Latvians" list this time, while "Latvia First" received the most votes in Latgale.

Early voting this year drew 11.2% of voters, compared with 4.11% four years ago when advance voting was limited to three days and fewer locations; those early voters were not included in the survey. Four years ago, the poll's results differed from official outcomes by no more than 1.5 percentage points for most parties, except New Unity and the Progressives, which overperformed in the poll by 3.5 and 2.1 points respectively. The survey's methodology was supported by research company SKDS, with NGO representatives also assisting in Latgale. The CVK is expected to release initial results overnight, with preliminary results from most polling stations due Sunday.