JD Vance’s 2028 Strategy: Criticizing Israel as a Path to the Presidency
Vice President JD Vance, preparing for the 2028 presidential election, has begun openly criticizing Israel, distancing himself from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who maintains unconditional support for Israel. This strategy is based on growing skepticism toward Israel among Republican voters.
In a recent interview with the New York Times, Vice President JD Vance denied an “intense rivalry” between him and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, yet reports and speculation about tensions persist. Rubio’s camp has allegedly spread rumors that Vance was considering dropping out of the presidential campaign before it even starts.
In response, over the past two weeks, Vance has stepped away from his usual low-profile persona to make bold statements critical of Israel. Rubio, meanwhile, continues to hold the party line of unconditional support for Israel. While Vance has led efforts to negotiate a peace deal with Iran—which has rattled Israel—Rubio has spearheaded pressure on the Lebanese government for an agreement on Israel’s terms.
By becoming the face of Republican skepticism toward Israel and clashing with his likely presidential rival Rubio, Vance appears to be charting his own path to the presidency, distancing himself from what seem increasingly unpopular foreign policy positions. Rubio, until recently, had been on the rise, assigned ever more important responsibilities by Trump. He has been a leading voice for a hawkish approach, including military action from Venezuela to Iran, outweighing the counsel of the more isolationist Vance.
On Israel, Vance has pointed out what he sees as two critical mistakes by pro-Israel people in the US: failing to distinguish between American and Israeli interests, and conflating criticism of a particular government with Jew hatred. “If everything is Jew hatred, then nothing is Jew hatred,” he said.
Polls show that 57 percent of Republicans under 50 now hold negative views of Israel. Although Republican elected officials have been unable to rally support behind criticism of Israel, the demand for more frank conversation has propelled right-wing commentators like Tucker Carlson and Candace Owens to greater prominence.
As sitting vice president, Vance must defer to Trump. While Trump is currently frustrated with Netanyahu, there are no guarantees the relationship will not warm up by 2028. Similarly, if Vance’s stance on Israel helps him capture the “America First” mantle—though the Christian Zionist camp remains strongly pro-Israel—he may then face a Democratic competitor who more credibly seizes the Israel-skeptic mantle. That competitor is likely California Governor Gavin Newsom, who has quickly walked back his few comments on Palestine and Israel to appease pro-Israel party backers.
Israel appears set to be a wedge issue in the upcoming election. Vance, in his book Hillbilly Elegy, wrote: “I don’t believe in epiphanies. … Transformation is harder than a moment.” He is not necessarily committed to driving change, but he may be smart enough to ride it.
