United Russia draws No. 1 ballot spot in 21 of 39 regions ahead of September vote, Yabloko says odds are near-zero
Russia's ruling United Russia party won the top ballot position in 21 of 39 regions holding regional parliament elections in September 2026, opposition party Yabloko reports, calculating the odds of a fair random draw producing that result at just 0.00000378%.
Ahead of September 2026 regional parliament elections across 39 Russian regions, the ruling United Russia party has drawn the No. 1 ballot position in 21 of them — more than half — according to the opposition Yabloko party.
Ivan Bolshakov, head of Yabloko's analytical center, calculated that if the drawing were genuinely random and fair, the probability of United Russia landing first place in so many regions would be just 0.00000378%.
"Pure fantasy"
Bolshakov said winning Russia's state Sportloto lottery would be a far easier feat. He argued that if every party had an equal chance in the draw, this outcome would represent an enormous statistical deviation from what would normally be expected — in plain terms, he said, it amounts to pure fantasy.
Same pattern in Duma race
United Russia also secured the No. 1 ballot spot in the concurrent race for Russia's State Duma, the parliament's lower house. Yabloko itself drew the No. 2 spot in that contest, but Russia's Supreme Court subsequently removed the party from the election entirely.
