Voog: Isamaa has more potential to increase support than Centre Party
According to sociologist Aivar Voog, Estonia's Isamaa party has broader opportunities to attract voters from liberal parties, while the Centre Party mainly competes with Isamaa and EKRE.
Sociologist Aivar Voog from the research firm Emor has stated that the Isamaa party has greater potential to increase its support compared to the Centre Party, despite their electorates partially overlapping.
Voog explained that while Isamaa and the Centre Party compete for conservative Estonian-speaking voters, Isamaa can try to attract supporters from liberal right-wing parties such as the Reform Party, Eesti 200, and the Right-wingers. In contrast, the Centre Party, to increase support among Estonian speakers, mainly needs to win over voters from Isamaa and EKRE.
Among Russian-speaking voters, the Centre Party remains the undisputed leader – in June, it was supported by two-thirds of respondents in this group. Voog noted that the Centre Party has an easier position in this regard because Isamaa also competes with the Reform Party and the Right-wingers, a new and growing party that will likely gain additional momentum during the election campaign.
He also mentioned that the increase in Centre Party support among Estonians to 13% in June, comparable to the ratings of EKRE and the Reform Party, may be due to a technical sampling glitch. Voog emphasized that the electorate is divided into two large groups – conservative (supporting Isamaa, Centre Party, or EKRE) and liberal (Reform Party, Social Democrats, Eesti 200). In his opinion, the Reform Party would be wiser to compete with the Social Democrats rather than with Isamaa.
