WSJ: Russia held mobilization exercises in Kaliningrad region
Western intelligence officials told the Wall Street Journal that Russia conducted mobilization readiness drills in the Kaliningrad region in July, part of similar preparations across the country. The Kremlin has not yet decided to implement mobilization, but pressure over Donbas could change that.
According to The Wall Street Journal, citing Western intelligence officials, Russian military officers flew from St. Petersburg to the Kaliningrad region last month to oversee planning and readiness for mobilizing local residents. The exercise covered procedures such as deployment, provisioning of food and equipping mobilized personnel with weapons.
Intelligence officials said the Kaliningrad drills were just one of many similar exercises being carried out across Russia in case mobilization is declared. Sources said the Kremlin has not yet decided to move forward with such measures and likely will not until after parliamentary elections in late September, though President Vladimir Putin's determination to seize all of Donbas could push him toward that decision.
Manpower shortages at the front
The newspaper reports that in recent months Moscow has failed to recruit enough new soldiers to replace those killed or wounded in battle. Meanwhile, the growing use of Ukrainian drones has reportedly cut the average survival time of Russian soldiers at the front to mere minutes, days or weeks. American and European officials said these personnel shortages may leave Putin with little choice but to announce a new wave of mobilization.
Intelligence officials also noted that in the event of an escalation with the West, Russia could attempt to seize part of the so-called Suwałki Gap — a strip of land connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus through neighboring Poland and Lithuania.
Rumors about an upcoming mobilization, circulating for weeks and months, have reportedly caused unease inside Russia, with men searching online for ways to leave the country in an emergency. Some Russians have reportedly already identified places where they could go for several months to wait out a possible mobilization.
A mobilization could help reinforce Russia's front line and speed up its advance on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk in the Donetsk region, though if carried out this late in the year, before fighting typically slows in winter, its practical effect remains unclear. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated on August 11 that Russia is preparing to carry out additional mobilization after its simulated parliamentary elections this fall.
