Zelenskyy Holds His Ground Against Trump, Risking U.S. Support

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is defying U.S. President Donald Trump's pressure to halt drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. The dispute follows Trump's plan to lift sanctions on Moscow so the United States can buy millions of tons of Russian diesel fuel. For Kyiv the timing is especially painful, with winter approaching, Ukraine under continued drone and ballistic missile attacks, and civilian casualties rising.

Zelenskyy called the deal a “weak decision” and “a gift to Putin” that would help fund Russia's war. Trump responded by urging Ukrainians to replace their leader and demanding an end to strikes on Russia's energy industry. Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram that any de-escalation steps must be mutual, saying Ukraine will stop hitting refineries only if Moscow ends its air barrage.

Risks for Kyiv

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat and fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), suggests Zelenskyy may be betting that Trump will emerge weakened from next month's U.S. midterm elections, as some Republicans are already breaking ranks over the diesel deal. But Trump could cut off intelligence sharing or pressure Elon Musk to disable Starlink, the internet service Ukraine's military relies on heavily. The Financial Times reported that the administration has also threatened to halt a program through which allies buy U.S. weapons for Ukraine.

Support at home

Opposition lawmakers, including former President Petro Poroshenko, a political rival, have backed Zelenskyy. Lawmaker Mykola Knyazhitskiy argues Trump's remarks actually strengthen Zelenskyy's standing at home. Nathalie Tocci, who advised two former EU foreign policy chiefs, says Trump's leverage over Kyiv has shrunk because he has already withdrawn most American support.

Still, Kyiv fears that any U.S. deal with Moscow will come at Ukraine's expense. Opposition lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze says Putin is not ready for a ceasefire.