Scientists warn 1.5°C climate change threshold could arrive by 2029
Climate scientists speaking during the COP31 UN climate conference warn that the 1.5°C warming threshold could be reached by 2029. They say collective government action on climate has stalled for a fifth consecutive year.
Climate scientists warned this week, during the COP31 UN climate conference, that global warming could cross the 1.5°C threshold above preindustrial levels as early as 2029. Experts say collective government action on climate change has stalled for the fifth year in a row.
Heck, one of the scientists, said efforts to accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels have been cancelled out by new oil and gas drilling projects, and by governments that are delaying, weakening or rolling back their climate policies. Even in the most optimistic scenario, with existing policies and pledges fully implemented, global temperatures would rise 3.4°F above preindustrial levels by 2100. Climate scientists consider such an increase extremely dangerous.
Niklas Höhne, a researcher at The New Climate Institute, acknowledged progress in renewable energy but said these positive developments have not yet added up to bend the emissions curve fast enough. He compared developing new oil and gas projects to discovering your food is burning and turning up the stove instead of switching it off.
Dispute over wording
Höhne pointed to the COP31 negotiations on global renewable energy goals. The conference's co-hosts, Turkey and Australia, have so far opposed using the word "clean" in connection with electrification targets. He said the only explanation he could think of was their interest in fossil fuels. Australia is one of the world's biggest coal exporters, while Turkey is a major coal consumer, with its power sector still heavily dependent on coal. Neither country has offered specific plans to transition away from fossil fuels.
Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, criticized wealthy, developed countries for lacking leadership on climate action. He noted that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen did not mention transitioning away from fossil fuels in her speech at COP31 this week. In Hare's words, governments face a stark choice: continued support for fossil fuels would consign humanity and ecosystems to insurmountable economic damage and irretrievable loss.
