AfD's landslide win in eastern Germany reshapes far-right playbook across Europe

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party's decisive victory in last weekend's Saxony-Anhalt state election is upending assumptions that populist parties must moderate to gain power. The party captured 44% of the vote after doubling down on anti-immigration and anti-Islam rhetoric, along with a pro-Russian stance, rather than softening its positions.

This stands in contrast to the path taken by other prominent European far-right figures — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and France's National Rally leader Marine Le Pen have both moved toward the political mainstream over the years, including on EU and NATO issues, while distancing themselves from Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

The AfD's breakthrough is being felt beyond Germany's borders at a moment when far-right parties are polling strongly ahead of upcoming elections in Sweden, France, Spain, Poland and Italy. Afonso Gonçalves, leader of Portugal's ultranationalist Reconquista movement, called the result proof that nationalist policies are the winning formula. U.S. President Donald Trump also publicly praised the outcome on his Truth Social platform.

Meloni and Le Pen, meanwhile, have declined to comment. The rift between the AfD and other far-right parties is not new — France's National Rally severed ties with the AfD in 2024 after German party figures downplayed the role of the Nazi SS organization.

The AfD's success has been driven partly by empowering its most radical members, including Saxony-Anhalt party leader Ulrich Siegmund, who drew national attention in 2024 for attending a closed-door meeting in Potsdam on mass migrant deportation plans. The party champions so-called "remigration," offering financial incentives for migrants to leave the country.

However, analysts caution the radical approach may not translate to national success — Germany's mainstream parties have pledged not to form coalitions with the AfD, already complicating government formation in Saxony-Anhalt. History also shows that once in power, populist parties often struggle to deliver on their promises, as seen with Hungary's former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.