English councils warn of 'catastrophic' special needs debts

English councils are warning of potentially "catastrophic" debts, forecast to reach a record £10bn over the next 18 months. The cause is rapid growth in demand for special educational needs and disability (Send) support in English schools. The forecasts were published on Tuesday by the County Councils Network (CCN), which represents county-level authorities.

Debt is building again

The government recently wrote off more than £5bn of historic council Send debts. Even so, a surge in requests means councils expect to have accumulated that amount again by April, and to double it by 2028.

Applications are rising fastest for education, health and care plans (EHCPs). These are legal documents agreed between a local authority and a family, setting out the support needed by children and young people up to the age of 25, for example with speech or learning difficulties, autism or ADHD. The increase is thought partly to reflect a rush by parents and schools to secure support before the government's planned changes take effect. Those reforms aim to gradually build a more inclusive system in mainstream schools, where an EHCP would in principle not be needed.

The numbers

In January, 718,000 young people had an EHCP, up 12.5% on a year earlier — the largest annual rise since the plans were introduced in 2014. A further 1.3 million young people have identified special needs. Several councils project that nearly one in 10 pupils will have an EHCP by 2029. Hampshire county council forecasts a £200m deficit this year.

Demand on ministers

The debts are currently kept off councils' balance sheets under a special arrangement with the Treasury, which is due to expire in April 2028. The government has agreed to pay 90% of debts accumulated to March 2026, but it is unclear how far later debts will be covered. CCN spokesperson Linden Kemkaran said the deficits resulted from meeting statutory duties without matching funding. A government spokesperson acknowledged that deficits and applications will keep rising and promised details before March 2028.