FAO food price index falls in October as sugar climbs for fourth month

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) published its latest world food commodity price data on 6 November. The FAO Food Price Index, the main global benchmark for food commodity prices, averaged 133.9 points in October. That is 1.6 points, or 1.2%, below the revised September figure. Compared with a year earlier the index is 5.9% higher, but it remains 16.4% below its March 2022 peak.

The FAO said lower prices across most commodity groups more than offset a sharp rise in sugar and a marginal increase in vegetable oils.

Cereals

The cereal price index was 4.5% lower than in September. Wheat prices fell after four consecutive monthly increases, reflecting subdued international demand and an improving production outlook, particularly in Argentina. Continued disruption to Black Sea logistics limited the decline. Maize prices also weakened after reaching a three-year high the previous month, as the US harvest weighed on the market and ample supplies are expected in major South American exporters. Rice moved the other way: its index rose 1.6% as harvest delays in some exporting countries, adverse weather and rising costs added to price pressure.

In a new Cereal Supply and Demand brief, the FAO forecasts that global cereal production in 2026 will fall from the 2025 record but remain the second highest on record, at 2,999 million tonnes. Output is expected to decline across all major cereal categories, most markedly wheat. Rice production is set to contract for the first time in four seasons, by 2.5% to 552 million tonnes, reflecting poor producer margins and El Niño-related adverse weather.

Meat, dairy and sugar

The meat price index fell 1.2% from September but stayed slightly higher year-on-year. Pig, ovine and bovine meat prices declined, while poultry prices were broadly stable. The dairy index dropped 1.1%, with butter and cheese prices lower amid ample supplies and subdued buying interest, while milk powder prices rose further.

The sugar price index rose 6.6%, its fourth consecutive monthly increase, reaching the highest level since December 2024 and standing 28.8% above a year earlier. The rise was mainly driven by rainfall-related disruption to sugarcane harvesting and crushing in Brazil's Centre-South region. Concerns about 2026/27 production prospects in India, the EU and Thailand added to the upward pressure.