Poll: Le Pen could win first round of France's presidential election

Marine Le Pen, former leader of France's National Rally, has strong prospects of leading the first round of next year's presidential election, according to an Ipsos-BVA poll of more than 13,000 voters published on Sunday. The survey indicates that in the first-round vote scheduled for April 18, 2027, Le Pen could win roughly a third of the votes cast.

A possible runoff scenario

Le Monde, which published the extensive poll results, reports that former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe could face Le Pen in the runoff on May 2 — but only if his rival from the same political camp, Gabriel Attal, withdraws his candidacy. Should both remain in the race, the chances of leftist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon reaching the second round would increase.

Widespread voter frustration

The poll points to significant voter anxiety over public finances and the cost of living. Nearly three-quarters of respondents believe the situation in the country will worsen soon, compared with 45% who held that view before the 2022 election, which Emmanuel Macron won for a second term. An Ipsos-BVA representative said demand for radical change has never been stronger, with seven in ten French voters hoping next year's election will bring real social and political change, up from 51% five years ago. At the same time, the pollster noted that a decisive tipping point still does not appear inevitable, even as pressure mounts on mainstream candidates to propose more radical measures.

For Le Pen, who has already run for president three times, the 2027 election is seen as her best — and possibly last — chance to reach the country's top office. She intends to run despite being convicted over fake parliamentary assistant jobs at the European Parliament, for which an appeals court sentenced her in July to a year of house arrest.