Polls Show Democrats With Widening Paths to Senate Majority
With primaries largely finished, Democrats have more routes than expected to flip the US Senate in 2026 as President Trump's approval sinks below 40 percent. An unpopular Iran war and high prices are weighing on Republican prospects.
As primary elections wrap up across key 2026 battleground states, Democrats find themselves with a broader set of opportunities to capture the US Senate majority than party leaders initially mapped out. Democrats currently hold 47 seats and need four more flips while defending their current seats, including in Michigan and Georgia, both states Trump carried in 2024.
Trump's approval rating has slipped below 40 percent amid a six-month, unpopular war involving Iran and rising gas and grocery prices, with one poll putting his approval near 30 percent. The last comparable scenario—George W. Bush in 2006 amid an unpopular war and high gas prices—saw Democrats gain six Senate seats and take control.
Alaska and North Carolina
In Alaska, former representative Mary Peltola leads incumbent Dan S. Sullivan in early primary results, a race recently reclassified as a toss-up. A confusing wrinkle: another candidate sharing the surname Sullivan also qualified for the general election, potentially splitting Republican votes. In North Carolina, former governor Roy Cooper has consistently led Trump-backed candidate Michael Whatley, at times by double digits.
Ohio, Texas and Maine
In Ohio, former senator Sherrod Brown has pulled ahead of incumbent Jon Husted in August polling, with Husted's campaign hurt by voter backlash against data centers. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico has vastly outraised Republican Ken Paxton in fundraising and is running close in recent polls. Should Texas not pan out, Democrats see a possible path in Maine, where Troy Jackson is now facing longtime incumbent Susan Collins after the original nominee dropped out following an allegation he denies.
