Armenia's Constitutional Reforms: Path to Peace or Decline of Russian Influence?
After parliamentary elections, Armenia's ruling party failed to secure an absolute majority needed for constitutional amendments. Reforms are crucial for a peace deal with Azerbaijan, as the current preamble contains claims to Nagorno-Karabakh.
In the June 7 parliamentary elections in Armenia, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ruling party, “Civil Contract,” won 49.81% of the vote, retaining leadership but falling short of the 50% threshold required to unilaterally amend the constitution.
Constitutional amendments are critical for reaching a peace agreement with Azerbaijan. The problem lies in the current constitution's preamble, which references the Declaration of Independence calling for the unification of the Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh. This region was recognized by the UN as occupied Azerbaijani territory from the early 1990s until 2023. This reference gives revanchists a pretext to agitate for a new conflict.
Russia openly supported revanchist groups, but they were defeated in the elections. However, instability benefits Russia, as a peace treaty would erode its remaining influence. Kremlin propaganda outlets have already portrayed the election results as a “defeat” for Pashinyan, focusing on his failure to reach 50%.
Pashinyan has repeatedly emphasized the need for constitutional reforms. In a 2024 interview, he compared Armenia to a person in red clothing walking a path flanked by bulls—reform is necessary to avoid collision. Although lacking an absolute majority, Pashinyan can initiate the amendment process if he gains support from some opposition deputies. The EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) noted that Russia is likely to try to sabotage the peace process.
Without a comprehensive peace treaty and constitutional changes, regional transport links cannot be unlocked, which is essential for Armenia's economic reorientation from Russia toward Europe. Armenia needs a constitution suited for the future, not one anchored in the late 1980s political situation. Nagorno-Karabakh is no longer a topic for negotiation, and the people must choose peace and development.
