Union warns: excessive probation workloads put public at risk in England and Wales

The National Association of Probation Officers (Napo) has issued a stark warning about public safety in England and Wales, stating that probation officers are struggling with unsustainable caseloads that leave ex-offenders unsupervised. For the first time, the union’s executive has expressed no confidence in probation service managers and is threatening to launch industrial action in three months if staff do not receive increased support and pay.

The warning comes as the government prepares to expand electronic tagging from September, aiming to monitor up to 40,000 former offenders – a 40% increase from the current 28,000. This is part of broader efforts to relieve pressure on the criminal justice system.

Last year, an official watchdog warned that the probation service had too few staff with insufficient experience and training, putting the public at risk. The Public Accounts Committee found that longstanding staff shortages had led to officers in some areas working at 126% of capacity for several years, resulting in ‘excessive and unmanageable workloads’.

Tania Bassett, a Napo national official, said the situation poses a direct risk to the public. “Excessive workloads and staff burnout pose a direct risk to the public with staff being unable to effectively manage the risk of their clients in the community,” she said. She also highlighted that a shortage of accommodation would lead to more homelessness and reoffending.

Bassett further claimed that managers are attempting to remove a workload measurement tool, which would hide the true scale of officers’ tasks. “The loss of a workload measurement tool will leave staff, including managers, unable to see their workloads and therefore unable to evidence that they are overworked,” she said.

According to the National Audit Office, the Prison Service met only 26% of its targets for timeliness of appointments and delivery of services in 2024-25, down from 50% in 2022. The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) reported that between 2023 and 2025, 31% of target probation appointments did not take place.

Earlier this year, the MoJ announced plans to recruit 1,300 extra probation officers over the next year as part of a £700m investment by 2029, which includes £100m for the tagging expansion and a £5m pilot for proximity monitoring technology for domestic abusers and stalkers.

The union’s executive has passed a motion stating that the failure to address high vacancy and staff sickness rates, along with the removal of the workload measurement tool, makes the current position untenable. The motion accuses HM Prison and Probation Service leadership of a “reckless disregard for our welfare and professional integrity as well as the safety of our communities.”

Prisons Minister James Timpson acknowledged the severe pressure on the probation service, noting that staff are each managing an average of 32 ex-offenders. “It’s running too hot … we inherited a system that was broken, and we’re putting it all back together again. It’s going to take time,” he told the justice select committee.

An MoJ spokesperson said the department remains committed to working closely with trade unions to ensure staff support and public protection, expressing full confidence in probation service leadership to deliver necessary changes.