US builds barriers around drones and robots, but China has the scale to get around them
Washington tightened restrictions on foreign robotics and imposed tariffs on imported drones this summer, but analysts warn the moves don't address China's manufacturing scale and cost advantages. Industry experts predict a more regionally fragmented robotics market rather than a clean US-China split.
In July and August, Washington tightened restrictions on foreign-made advanced robotic systems and imposed steep tariffs on imported drones and their components, both citing national-security concerns. Tariffs on drones take effect in September, with additional tariffs on components following in 2027. The moves are part of a broader US effort to restrict foreign technology in strategically important industries. The FCC's Covered List, established in 2021, initially targeted telecommunications and surveillance equipment from companies such as Huawei, ZTE and Hikvision before expanding to foreign-made drones and, most recently, advanced robotic devices.
The scale gap
China dominates global humanoid robot manufacturing, with worldwide shipments reaching 22,000 units in the first half of this year, the vast majority from Chinese manufacturers, according to Counterpoint Research. The world's five largest humanoid robot makers by shipments — AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics — are all Chinese, together accounting for 86% of global shipments in the first half of 2026. Analysts note that lower prices let Chinese manufacturers deploy more robots in real-world use, generating data that improves their technology, while higher production volumes further push costs down. Chinese companies are also increasingly building components in-house, drawing on the country's existing manufacturing base.
Where China goes next
Even if Chinese robotics firms lose access to the US market, they retain a large domestic market and room to expand elsewhere, particularly in regions with strong demand for affordable automation, including Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. The drone market already shows this kind of split, with the industry increasingly dividing into a US-led ecosystem built around American-made, security-compliant systems and a China-led ecosystem focused on low-cost, high-volume production. Western manufacturers are unlikely to beat Chinese firms in the low-end consumer drone segment, but could compete more in long-range autonomous systems for defense and critical infrastructure.
A more regional market
Analysts say the alternative to China isn't a purely domestic US supply chain but a diversified allied one. Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could emerge as a middle ground between cheaper Chinese robots and pricier US offerings, though none can fully replace China given how deeply embedded Chinese components remain across the global industry. Overall, industry observers expect not a clean US-China divide but the emergence of regional markets, with Chinese companies competing on cost and scale across much of the world while US and allied manufacturers gain ground where security requirements matter most.
