Estonian experts warn of risks as US eyes military drawdown in Europe

The United States is reportedly preparing to reduce its military footprint in Europe, including cuts to fighter aircraft and naval assets, which defense experts say could create critical capability gaps. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur (Reform) said NATO defense planning would remain unchanged, though he acknowledged reports of a gradual US shift away from Europe.

Security expert Meelis Oidsalu said proposed cuts to aerial refueling tankers could have broad operational effects. "If you look at the list, the most systemic impact may come from the removal of Boeing Stratotanker aircraft," he said. "That will affect training, that will affect operations, especially in NATO's border areas."

Oidsalu also pointed to reductions in maritime patrol aircraft, which he said are critical not only for surveillance but also for reconnaissance, early warning and anti-submarine warfare. "In NATO's deterrence posture that we've been talking about, this move would mean a fairly significant hit to our deterrence capability," he added.

Pevkur said while he does not doubt there is truth to reported drawdown plans, he does not see major cause for concern, suggesting the US shift reflects long-discussed strategic plans to reduce its footprint in Europe while maintaining NATO commitments. He acknowledged that the biggest military challenge is always moving ground forces. "So our message to the Americans has been that when looking at the implementability of European defense plans, and at how, what and when things need to be moved, ground force presence in Europe should definitely remain sufficient to keep [NATO] defense plans quickly executable," the defense minister said.

MP Raimond Kaljulaid (SDE), a member of the Riigikogu's National Defense Committee, warned that any gap in coordination during the transition period could increase regional risk, as Europe is still working to develop replacement capabilities. "If coordination between allies does not work and those gaps remain, of course it would be an additional security risk for our region," Kaljulaid said, stressing that Russia could interpret any temporary weakening as a chance to test NATO readiness.

The US is expected to finalize its plans within the next month.