US Professor Warns Baltic States Not to Repeat Ukraine’s Mistake

At the Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026 conference, US professor Roman Sheremeta told LETA that the Baltic states, while doing many things right, are not discussing the real threat of a Russian invasion enough. He stressed that intelligence reports currently show no imminent attack, but that could change quickly as Putin can mobilize the army within months.

Sheremeta disagreed with Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže and other officials who believe the Baltics are not vulnerable. He argued that Ukraine is no longer a viable target for Russia – Putin has obtained almost everything he could from Ukraine. In contrast, the Baltic states offer more potential gains. Russian propaganda channels already speak of being at war with the Baltics and Poland, and Sheremeta warned that the Russian public would easily accept a real conflict.

The professor highlighted a scenario where Russia pulls troops from the current front line in Ukraine and moves 200,000 combat-experienced soldiers to the Baltic region. He estimated the probability at about 10%, but stressed it is real. The highest threat period is the next two and a half years while Donald Trump is in the White House, because after Trump and the Republicans likely lose power, Putin’s position will weaken.

Sheremeta criticized reliance on NATO’s Article 5, calling it a “paper tiger.” He questioned whether France or other allies would quickly deploy thousands of troops, and noted that Europe has already exhausted resources supporting Ukraine. He recalled that many Ukrainians, including parliament members and President Zelensky, refused to believe Russia would invade, leading to fatal unpreparedness. He urged Baltic politicians and media to openly discuss possible invasion scenarios and not dismiss the narrative of Russian threat for fear of causing panic.