US midterm result raises uncertainty over Trump's foreign policy

The Democratic Party won control of the US Congress, which decides government spending, in the midterm elections on Tuesday, 3 November. The result is a blow to President Donald Trump's Republican Party and also bears on US foreign policy, according to an editorial in the British newspaper The Guardian. What follows sets out that opinion, not established fact.

The war as an electoral factor

US Vice-President JD Vance wrote on X: "The reason we lost is the war." The paper says Mr Trump himself acknowledged the impact of the Iran conflict, and argues that voters felt it through higher prices. It contends that resuming the bombing would only deepen the crisis. Mr Trump has so far resisted pressure from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to renew the war. Mr Netanyahu is now fighting for political survival after last month's election in Israel.

What a Democratic majority could change

Mr Trump has expanded executive authority over war and has said he will use his veto if Congress becomes a problem. Even so, controlling Congress gives Democrats new leverage. They can tie their goals to must-pass legislation and use control of the appropriations committees to scrutinise where money is spent. They could also investigate links between Mr Trump's circle and foreign powers and business figures. Threatening a government shutdown over foreign policy carries political risks, however.

Israel and what comes next

Mr Vance also spoke of the need to "change our relationship to Israel". Mr Trump reportedly said the US would end military aid to Israel by the end of the year. The editorial describes both as belated reactions to shifting public opinion, noting that most Americans now view Israel unfavourably.

Uncertainty also surrounds a possible three-way meeting between Mr Trump, Russian president Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in China this month. The editorial's authors say Ukraine and Taiwan have reason to be nervous.